What Nigerians Want: Concluding Part Of The 2015 Nigeria Electoral Survey
It has been interesting to observe the post-election analyses of the
2015 polls. The PDP has been in crisis mode, with claims and
counterclaims that Goodluck Jonathan’s loss was due to failed strategies
by either the party’s national executives or the presidential strategy
committee. On the other hand, the APC, quite understandably, has been in
ebullient form, claiming that their party’s comprehensive victory at
the polls was as a result of their masterful strategies. The insights
that we generated from both surveys indicate that the PDP is being too
harsh on itself, and the APC should be cautious in its assessment of its
hold on the Nigerian political system.
Our aims in conducting these surveys were two-fold – firstly, we wanted to demonstrate that political discourse in Nigeria was subject to the same drivers and dynamics as in any other polity, and that there was nothing inherently inscrutable about the political preferences of Nigerians. Secondly, we wanted to explore the role that objective activities such as political polling and surveys could play, not only in predicting the outcomes of elections but also in enabling political actors and administrators to have reliable means of feeling the pulse of their constituents. Politicians derail, when once in office, they get enveloped in a cocoon of negligent indifference that is erected by sycophants and overzealous security agents. Such cocoons can prevent them from fully comprehending what the major concerns of their constituents are, and how their policies are impacting those interests. We believe that both aims were met. On aggregate, both of the surveys we published conclusively determined that Buhari and the APC would sweep both the presidential and national assembly elections.
Why Buhari Won – A Retrospective Analysis
It has been interesting to observe the post-election analyses of the 2015 polls. The PDP has been in crisis mode, with claims and counterclaims that Goodluck Jonathan’s loss was due to failed strategies by either the party’s national executives or the presidential strategy committee. On the other hand, the APC, quite understandably, has been in ebullient form, claiming that their party’s comprehensive victory at the polls was as a result of their masterful strategies. The insights that we generated from both surveys indicate that the PDP is being too harsh on itself, and the APC should be cautious in its assessment of its hold on the Nigerian political system.
Ahead of the elections, we provided clear indications for why Goodluck Jonathan would lose the 2015 polls and why power was going to shift at the Presidential level for the first time in Nigeria’s political history. The 2015 polls were not won or lost because of grand strategies and strong political party platforms and programs by either party. The 2015 Presidential election was simply a referendum on the PDP’s unique brand of scorched earth corruption. The APC and its candidates, particularly those who contested for national assembly seats (for which elections were simultaneously held at the same time as the presidential elections), were all beneficiaries of the Buhari phenomenon. By understanding the basis of their victory, the APC will better understand the tenuous nature of the mandate that Nigerians have handed to the party, and the significant expectations that come along with that mandate.
Although corruption only ranked 5th, on the list of voter priorities, it (corruption) was blamed for the failure of the PDP government to obtain any credible headway in addressing the 4 issues that Nigerians ranked ahead of it in their list of major priorities and concerns: i.e., the security situation / Boko Haram crisis, ensuring economic growth, creating jobs and easing unemployment and resolving the chronic issues in the power sector (see Figure 1).
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